Basketball Betting. How fouling affects NBA outcomes?

Are you a true basketball fan? Well, if you know enough about one of the world’s most exciting sports to watch, then you should remember something called «hack-a-shaq» - the strategy used back in the day to stop the clock by fouling (preferably the worst free-throw shooter, which Shaq was). The wide use of this approach raised concerns around the league and subsequently forced the rule change. However, there were a couple of studies & researches done prior to the change, which found a couple of interesting aspects of this strategy. The paper found out a couple of interesting points that could be useful when analysing the game:

• earlier clock stoppage
• huge increase in the number of possessions (almost double)
• more possessions = more outcome possibilities

While some people find the research quite absurd, there are lots of useful points that could be drawn from it. It is very obvious that predicting basketball outcomes is quite complicated, considering the effect a single player can have on the game (especially nowadays). Nevertheless, knowing and understanding the way teams foul in various situations, especially towards the end of the game, could prove quite effective.

According to the study mentioned above, there is a relationship where exactly NBA teams should foul and where they should not based on the remaining time & points deficit. Well, is it exactly how teams behave on the court? The answer is definitely NOT! However, proper implementation of such data into playing strategy could prove very effective. Unfortunately, due to the wide use of the «hack-a-shaq» method, the league introduced the rule change, preventing teams & coaches from exploiting it. What is more, players got better at free throws. Decreasing the potential reward from «hacking».

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According to experts, who have studied the game for years, the game itself looks very different from what it used to years ago. Nowadays, the final score (thus the outcome) of the game hugely relies on the shooting volume. Having said that, teams nowadays are looking to make less stoppages and have more control over the ball. There are plenty of teams that rely more on streaks by implementing high-pace medium possession playing styles. Such strategy is based on fewer fouling attempts & thus decreases the chance of being fouled out by the end of the regulation time.

However, there are still those teams that rely more on equal points distribution and thus heavy possession of the ball. As for them, they are still looking for more stops.

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Overall, you will not find much information about this topic, because betting companies and other interested parties are rarely interested in it. However, a good old rule of thumb suggests having as much information as possible. Hence, being able to read the game’s smallest nuances like fouling & ball possession will definitely help you gain the edge over your online bookmaker.

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