The importance of the first six games of the season

Many football fans argue about how much value some wins carry over the other ones. Why something like this even exists? A win would never bring you more than three points, so what determines the “value”? The best example of this never-ending argument is a matchup between two teams who are close to each other in the standings.

To get a deeper understanding of the topic, we need to look deeper in the first six games of the season. Why the first six, let’s find out together.

Six matches are probably not enough to assess the whole season, but it serves as a very valuable sample. 

Today we would use the Premier League as an example. Each schedule is generated randomly, but mainly 3 home & away games are played after the six-game span. This gives us a rather balanced data we can use for further assessment. 

There are so many things you need to take into consideration before the start of the season. Team rosters are always changing to be able to compete for higher prizes, new managers bring different chemistry and game styles, which are never guaranteed to work out. Some teams even move to new stadiums, which also carries a significant impact. Six games can give you enough information about all those aspects and their effect on a team’s performance.

It is very common to expect a team, which started well, to stay in the upper part of the table. It is not always like this, though. Six games is just a small part of the whole season, and it’s hard to keep your posture throughout it.

There are a couple of good examples of teams out- and overperforming at the beginning. The best examples would be Aston Villa, that dropped from the sixth to seventeenth spot during the 2014/2015 Premier League season and Crystal Palace, that did an amazing run lifting itself from the twentieth to eleventh position two seasons later. 

Another interesting fact, the Premier League winner has been outside the top four after six games only three times since the 1995/1996 season when the 38 games rule has been introduced. Those exceptions were 2002/2003 Manchester United (10th - 1st), 2013/2014 Manchester City (7th - 1st) and 2016/2017 Chelsea (8th - 1st).

As well as for those who win at the beginning, the same assumption is applier to those who lose the first six. 

The season is long and competitive, one mistake could be very costly. This side of the rule is very tough, but there has been one exception during the last years. Southampton managed to come back to the top six after a poor start making a run from the 16th to the 6th spot in the 2015/2016 season.

The “losing” rule has no mercy and makes you pay the price. Teams which appear at the bottom three after the first six games have been a subject to relegation in 22 our of 24 38-game Premier League seasons. This only proves how hard it is to recover from a poor start. The nightmare doesn’t stop there, while one of the bottom three teams (usually) relegates every season, the other two are not safe as well. The relegation of the two out of three outsiders took place 11 times during the last 24 seasons. The complete disaster happened in 2006/2007 season when all three teams, who found themselves at the bottom of the table after the first six games relegated altogether.

Knowing these tendencies, you can make your betting better by accurately assessing the market. Keeping this information in mind and evaluating the outrights offered by top online bookmakers throughout the season, you can gain an edge and beat the bookie at the end of a season.

First six games can serve you as not only the league winner determination helper but also as a way to predict future fixtures outcomes. This information, along with other useful betting methods and techniques that you can find in our betting guide section, will surely help you become a successful punter. Happy betting!

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