How do warning cards affect the outcome of the match

While betting on the penalty cards one must understand that the process of receiving cards during the game has a snowball effect. The game will be running smoothly until someone will commit a hard foul or get the first card. It usually happens after the rough tackle or referee’s mistake, like an unreasonable penalty card, that teams get off balance. The game itself becomes more physical and players subconsciously start playing rougher. Of course, the referee plays an important part in this. Insistent, but most of all impartial and fair referee can ease the tensions when needed while incompetent one will only make the situation worse. It has been proven that every card for team A increases the chances of receiving a penalty card for team B. What is the reason behind it? The main thing here is the fact that referees have a tendency for balancing their decisions during the match. While giving more penalty cards to team A, they often think they are biased and favour the other team. This results in a “guilty” feeling and attempts to compensate for team A’s previous decisions by punishing team B.

As we mentioned at the beginning, every committed foul increases the risk of a yellow, and consequently, a red card. Thus, affecting the final outcome of the match. Statisticians found that the goal-scoring ability of a team playing with one player advantage significantly raises up to 65%. What are the chances for a weakened team finishing the match with a satisfactory outcome? Statistically speaking, only 5% of teams playing one man down managed to win the match if a player receives a card during the draw situation. The result did not change till the end in 30% of the cases and, as you would expect it, 65% of cases resulted in a loss. These numbers evidently show that every single foul counts and could potentially affect the final outcome of the match.

Generally, the home team always has some sort of advantage and penalty cards are not an exception. The atmosphere in the stadium and the pressure from the fans often affects referees. As a result, they book away team players more frequently than the home team ones. Whether you believe it or not, statistically, away team players receive 65% of all warning cards in a game, which is quite a difference. One study also shows that the away team red card increases the chances of a home team scoring a goal up to 70%, while in the opposite case the likelihood is only around 60%.

The home field advantage in football