Tipster’s strategy - hindsight bias effect

Knowledge? Experience? Cold head? Or maybe luck? What exactly helps some punters win in sports betting, while others keep struggling with it? Of course, all of those factors play an important role in this process. Some do more, some less, however, according to the law of large numbers, something like luck is irrelevant for your calculations.

«I knew it was coming» or «I had a feeling, that team X would win the game» - how many times have you said a similar thing to yourself? The interesting fact is that all of this, what seems to be an innocent habit, is actually a huge danger that is sneaking up on every punter. Phycologist around the world even gave it a name - the hindsight bias effect.

Skill paradox in betting

Material benefits are only a part of the reasons why people opt-in to sign up with one of the online bookmakers. Click here to see the whole list of our recommended online betting services. Another, someone would say a more significant, incentive is emotions that come from betting. Our brain experience processes that are similar to those stimulated by drugs, during the wagering activity. That would either be euphoria or a strong feeling being down depending on the final outcome.

The hindsight bias effect is a completely natural consequence of a brain’s self-protection mechanism from the latter outcome. Every consecutive loss against the bookmaker is automatically being blamed on the bad luck, goalkeepers mistake or wrong referee’s decision. What is more, in order to justify it for ourselves, we often say that we knew exactly that this would happen, but due to some unlucky coincidence, we did not place the bet otherwise. Therefore, we almost won, meaning we are on the right track and do not have to change anything. Thus, the results will come down the road.

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There is nothing more wrong than this! The «almost» win does not have anything to do with A WIN! The «almost» win is a loss and should only be treated like that, not otherwise. Our brain must receive this warning signal and just like every computer in the world should start looking for solutions. First of all, it must make us aware that we are doing something wrong and that our strategy of how to beat the bookmaker still needs some work. Accepting a mistake is not shameful, instead, it is a first step towards evaluating the problem and finding the solution. Falling for hindsight bias all the time will never lead you to something like that.

Confirmation bias in sports betting