Value bet

The notion Value bet is used by more experienced punters to describe a bet in which probability of certain score is higher than the odds set by a bookmaker. In other words, finding Value is looking for a mistake in bookmaker's calculations. That's why high odds doesn't necessarily mean we have lower chances, that's what bookmaker BELIEVES. And bookies are only human beings, who make wrong moves. The idea is to spot that wrong move, and counter-act.

Talking about Value bet in general it is a bet with an expected positive outcome. But for real this claim is about human mistakes. Why? In one part of an article called Advice for beginner punters we wrote: “Don’t be afraid to betting with high odds”. A claim from the same article: “Remember that in reality you do not play against fate or a certain team but only against bookmakers’ mistakes” will be additional.
Second part of this offer is only a quintessence of the whole notion of Value bet. Sometimes in sports betting we have to deal with a situation when a bookmaker makes a mistake in calculations of odds for the given match and one of them, in our opinion, is overrated comparing to the objective calculation of the match forecast. Curiously enough such a situation can be met quite often. Then we can talk about that the given bet/odds has value. In other words we deal with Value bet in case of a situation when we estimate whether the given event has bigger chances for success than the bookmaker offers, more precisely the put by him odds.

A little bit of math or when does a bet have value?
The formula: p*o>1, should be used here. Some calculations should be done to find out whether the chosen odds will give us our Value.
In the presented formula :
p - success probability 
o - odds

An example from life. Using the section “Free forecasts” placed on our site we have checked the archive and present the effects of this check. We placed a meeting of Lecce and Udineze… In our analysis we claimed that odds for Udineze are a bit overrated. We put this event into our formula and can see whether it meets the demands to be qualified to Value bet or not.    

p*o>1
40% (we use bet 4/10) * 2,40 (odds for Udineze) > 1
0,4 * 2,40 > 1
0,96 > 1
The given statement or better to say forecast doesn’t meet Value bet’s demands.

The next example from our free forecasts archive. This time we deal with a basketball match Charleroi – Nymburk. The link to analysing of this match and its odds you can find here… According to our analysis chances for the guests’ victory are higher than the bookmaker offers.  We use the formula.    

p*o>1
40% (we use bet 4/10) * 2,85 (odds for Nymburk) > 1
0,4 * 2,85 > 1
1,14 > 1
In this example the main demand, as it can be seen, is fulfilled by 100%, this is why this event is a classical Value Bet.

A game with Value bet is connected with dedication of some time, especially for beginner punters. Comparisons of different types of odds, even those which are industriously worked on at our site, can help. A good source is internet forums or portals with free forecasts.
Experienced punters don’t have much trouble with Value betting. After several years of gaming they can immediately define odds which Value bet has, especially those which specialise in one sporting discipline and constantly follow all events. You can play in several ways with Value bet.
1. Search of very high odds immediately after their first appearance in the offer of the given bookmaker. This is likely the most classical example of Value bet usage. If a punter is at this level then he can see the obvious mistake of a bookmaker and then nothing is on his way to earning not only with the help of bookmaker bets but also at betting exchange. It is not a secret that punters who reached this level of knowledge are the best traders at the betting exchange.
2. A game with overrated in our opinion odds, formed by mistaken bookmaker’s calculations (we think that the placed by the bookmaker odds is very high). In such case Value bet can be even with odds 1,40 for some punters. Why? We have a match with Barcelona and Bate Borisov, online bookmakers place 1,20 odds and one of them gives 1,40, after what we think that odds is overrated…
3. Other bookmakers prefer games with a condition that odds has to be over 2,00. This is a safer kind of a game with Value bet since such odds win more often and that is why you have to maintain your effectiveness over level 2,00 to win.

Punters who place only high odds or such which have Value, have to pay attention to every possibility, even to series of defeats, which means that we have to be ready for a game with a huge capital. There are many events in such gaming strategy, but less effectiveness for predicting bets will be needed to generate income. A long series of defeats in case of a game with odds with Value can appear to be faster than when punters play with lower odds. We will end with the sequence often used among professionals “it is better burn yourself with 3.50 than fool yourself with 1.10”. We hope that this article will shed a new light on mutual sporting bets.