Extra Guide to Football Betting

Successful football betting is by no means an easy subject. The value that each team represents on paper is one thing. A number of other factors that decide which team will win the match is another thing. Football is unpredictable. Each of the 22 players on the field are psychologically-complex human beings prone to least expected errors and mistakes as well as sudden breath-taking feats and performances. On top of that, there are referees who hard as they may try, or pretend to try, will always make mistakes that turn matches upside down. We have compiled a considerable list of factors that can aid you in making well-informed football betting decisions. Considering these elements and betting consistently, we believe is the key to enjoyable and profitable betting. Generally, there are four main categories team/players, manager, club and other factors.

League table standings
The motivation to perform well increases when the team is either high or low in table standings, and especially towards the end of a season.

• Top of the table – high motivation; these teams are fighting for: League winners title, qualification spots to European Champions League or UEFA Cup
• Middle of the table – average motivation; generally these teams are too weak for European games, and too strong to be relegated
• Bottom of the table – high motivation; these teams are fighting to avoid relegation zone

Season Schedule

• Busy schedule vs club's priorities for the season vs the quality of substitute players
• Schedule includes: league games / national cups / international cups / friendly matches / other tournaments

Home form

• Wins/Draws/Losses ratio
• Goals scored/ Goals conceded
• Remember: when a team's home form is really bad, e.g a series of losses, players have an extra motivation to finish the unsuccessful period.

Away form

• Wins/Draws/Losses ratio
• Goals scored/ Goals conceded
• Remember: when a team's away form is really bad, e.g a series of losses, players have an extra motivation to finish the unsuccessful period

Defence form

• Defensive players + Goalkeeper form – Number of goals conceded (considering the last 3, or 5 or more matches)

Midfield and Attack form

• Number of goals scored, goal-scoring opportunities created and overall impression
  (considering the last 3, 5 or more matches)

Individual players form

• Last performances (considering last 3, 5 or more matches)
• Weak performance after a long break, e.g. injuries
• Involvement in international matches (friendlies, qualifiers, tournaments) positive effect – confidence boost / negative effect - overworked
• Acclimatisation (in case of new players)
• Health problems
• Personal affairs (positive /negative)

Other:

• Chemistry between specific players
• New quality players transfers
• Termination of contracts with key players
• Absence because of cards and suspensions
• Absence because of injuries

Manager factors

•     Tactics for the specific match
•     Chemistry between manager and players
•     Managerial changeover tends to have positive mental impact, new fresh stimulus, for the players in the first match or a few matches
•     When the manager is not allowed to be present on the bench as a result of penalty, it may be discouraging for the players

Club factors

•     Change of Ownership (positive / negative)
•     Stock Market – when football club floats its shares on the stock market (positive)
•     Financial problems – players not receiving their salaries (negative)
•     Financial motivation – bonuses, extra money, increased salaries (positive)

Weather

• moderate weather is best for optimal performance,
• heavy rain or gloomy weather often means goal-less draws,
• in stifling weather players get dehydrated quickly and in the second half tend to lack energy, exception: African players perform well in such conditions,
• blinding sunlight may be a great problem for one of the goalkeepers on the field (even when he wears a cap)

Stadium Factors

• new stadium, or recent re-modernisation (positive)
• temporary relocation (e.g. in the case of stadium's modernisation) (negative)

Pitch/ Turf

• good-quality, even surface predisposes teams playing technical football with lots of short passes;
• uneven, rough surface or with lots of puddles/ patches of snow predisposes team playing less technical football (lots of long passes or long-distance shots)
• other factors, e.g. artificial turf (manufactured from synthetic fibers resembling natural grass), an advantage of the home team, e.g Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow.

Supporters

• when the stadium is filled to its capacity, the home team morale is high,
• when no spectators are allowed to see the match, the home team morale is low.

Travel

• fatigue can occur when the Away team travels a long distance to play the away match
• in some lower leagues, teams travel and play the game in the same day which can contribute to poor performance
• planes as well as top-class fully-equipped club buses are neutral means of transport, while mini-buses or hired buses can be a disadvantage.
• quick adjusting to new time zone can be a problem

Media hype

• media hype can have different effects on a team's mental psyche, depending on the circumstances:
• when a team has nothing to lose and uses media hype to show off in front of wider public (positive)
• media attention can heighten pressure on the team, especially when the stake is high (negative)

History - history of the clashes between the two teams can be telling but should not be overrated