How to make the most accurate Premier League predictions?

Premier League is Europe’s most competitive football league at the moment. Thus, it is quite obvious that it attracts huge volumes of wagers all year long. Well, despite being so popular, what is the overall success rate of all the Premier League outrights? Let’s take a closer look at that.

English football has undergone quite a few changes, especially over the last 28 years, which are referred to as «the Premier League era». What is more, football experts are treating the modern Premier League as a completely separate phenomenon of English football, which is entirely different from what it used to be before it. So how is it any different from what it used to be before? It is commonly agreed that the most drastic changes that have changed the way football looks nowadays started back in 1992. It was something called the super-club phenomenon - the term used to describe the period of Premier League powerhouses’ dominance at the national level. Such a trend has lasted all the way until now, however, its biggest splash was felt during the mid-2000s, when the gap between the league’s best and the rest started widening up substantially. The change of the English football paradigm was forced by the accumulation of financial resources from various commercial deals and the Champions League involvement of the leading Premier League sides. The second component of such a change was the overall improvement of the game. Football nowadays looks more dynamic and advanced thanks to the involvement of foreign coaches, implementation of modern fitness techniques, and advanced tactics, which are based on the complex sports data analysis.

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Well, all of the above created a new set of standards (especially for the top of the league), where the competitiveness level is at its highest, and the room for error is at its lowest. In reality, it simply emphasised the importance of the fast start of the season; being more exact, the first 10 games.

Using the historic Premier League data and the current 2020/2021 campaign, we would like to show you how to use the first 10 games of the season to make the most accurate Premier League outright predictions.

At the beginning of the 2000s, Premier League sides were not worrying about the start of the season at all. The main objective was to start slow and build up the momentum to go all out in the second half of the campaign. Such an «energy-saving» approach was busted when Chelsea went off for two consecutive Premier League titles (2004/05, 2005/06). The first one to notice and publicly talk about the new trend was the former legendary Manchester United manager - Alex Ferguson. Thanks to his sharp observations, The Red Devils managed to adjust and win three consecutive titles between 2006 and 2009.

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Let’s take a quick look at what we already know. It was enough to start the Premier League season in a slow manner up until 2003. What is more, the first 11 Premier League champions ended up at the top of the league’s standings after the first 10 games of the season only three times (Manchester United in 93/94 & 00/01, Arsenal in 97/98). Just for the record, United took home the trophy eight times during that period, coming from the lower seed 75% of the time. The average points tally of the eventual league winner after 10 games during that period was just barely above 20, which is approximately 6-7 wins. To show you, how little it meant to sit at the top of the standings after the first 10 games back then, please, take a look at some of the league’s top-seeded sides (during 1992 - 2003): New Castle (3x), Aston Villa (2x) and Norwich (1x).

The tendency is very obvious. Chelsea, however, was not the only Premier League team to facilitate the change. The Arsenal’s Invincibles squad showed a phenomenal performance during 2003/2004 campaign collecting 24 after the first 10 matches and finishing the season with an incredible tally of 90 (both were second-best all-time results back then). Chelsea, on the other hand, scooped up cool 23 points after the first ten during the 04/05 championship season, and won all the first nine games the following campaign (also won a title). The new «fast-start» approach allowed teams like Chelsea & Arsenal to get a bit loose towards the end of the season and focus more on the European Cups (Champions League/Europa League) and FA Cup. The proper management allowed the team to shift all of its resources towards the more important matters and at the same time win the league’s title without any extra effort. Chelsea lost 7 out of 16 & 8 out of 20 last league meetings during 05/06 & 14/15 seasons respectively. As you can see, even such a lousy performance was not enough to stop the club from winning the title.

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The strategy was quickly picked up by other Premier League powerhouses starting with the «Big Four» and shortly followed by «Top Six», resulting in no team other than Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City leading the league after the 10-game mark ever since. The change could be seen quite clearly, there were 14 points tallies of more than 25 points after the first ten matches, comparing to only three recorded before that. The eventual champions’ table position after the first 10 matches moved up from an average of 2.45 to 2, with the points tally also going up from 20.8 to 24. The only exclusions from the so-called «new standards» during that period were Manchester City (2013/2014) and the freak-ish Leicester City (2015/2016), that managed to pick up only 19 points after the first ten Premier League meetings. However, those seasons were notorious for the league’s overall poor performance.

Moving on, the Mourinho’s Chelsea’s approach remains relevant up to this very day. We have witnessed a great Manchester City & Liverpool rivalry for a couple of the most recent seasons now, where both sides collected 28 (twice) & 26 points after their first ten league matches. Summing up all of the said above, the first 10 games of the season, teams’ position and their points tallies became the new benchmark tool for correctly predicting title runner-ups.

Surprisingly or not, the same trend can also be seen for the European Cups (Champions League/Europa League) qualifying seeds, meaning the «Top Four» and «Big Six»; however, it only became obvious a couple of years later. In this case, there are more anomalies, however, the trend remains quite obvious. Well, the same trend for the «Top Four», which later turned into the «Big Six», wasn’t quite clear at first because teams like Birmingham, Bolton (twice), Portsmouth and Aston Villa landed themselves the fourth spot after the first 10 games between 2001 - 2010. Obviously, they couldn’t grasp enough control to stay at the fourth and finished respective seasons at sixth or lower, with Birmingham falling as far as tenth (2003/2004). The tendency became more obvious after 2010 when no club, which was fourth after the first ten games, finished the campaign lower than sixth. The trend eventually formed the elite group of Premier League clubs that include only the following teams: Manchester City, Chelsea, Everton, Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea.

Despite a more obvious trend during the 2010s, there were still enough of extremums to question it. For example, Newcastle (2011/12), Southampton (2013/14) and West Ham (2015/16) managed to land at the top 3 after the first 10 games during that period. Nevertheless, the trend still remains in place with richer clubs dominating the Top Four. Taking a quick look at the table above, we can see that the average points tally for the fourth seed team has gone up 1 point (from 18.1 to 19.1) during that time. What is more, teams that secured the fourth position in the standing after the first 10 matches have recorded 20+ points only once during 2001 - 2010, compared to four instances during the more modern Premier League era (2010+).

What about the opposite side of the table? Does it follow the same trend? Well, unfortunately or not, the rich and dominant top of the Premier League only made the bottom half of the league more random. However, one thing remains for certain, the slow & terrible start of the season does not mean the end of the campaign.

Let’s take a look at some interesting stats. According to the historic Premier League data (we are considering only the period starting from 1995 when the league became a 20-team competition), two out of three teams that managed to get only one win after the first 10 matches stayed in the top-tier. Those were the 2013/14 Crystal Palace and the 2018/2019 Newcastle United. Over the same period of time, teams that were last after 10 games had an average position of 17. Eleven out of 25 such teams avoided relegation. Sixty per cent of teams (16/25) that found themselves in 18th after the first 10 matches also escaped the relegation zone. Five of those teams had to replace their manager mid-season. Landing above the relegation zone after the first ten matches does not guarantee you anything, however, the chances of staying up are somewhat better. Again, 60% (16/25) of teams that were above the relegation zone (above 18th place) ended up not making a cut by the end of the season. Moreover, Charlton (1998/99) and Bournemouth (2019/20) were sitting at the upper half of the standings after the first 10 before going back to Championship. The average position of teams that finished the season in 18th, thus relegated, since 1995 was 15.64.

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Looking at the points tally, acquiring 6 points in the first 10 matches gives above 50% possibility to remain in the Premier League for the next season. Just one point less and your chances of playing at the highest level next season are at 42.3%.

While the tendency at the bottom half of the Premier League is different from the one at its upper half, there are still trends that can be clearly observed. Even though the future of the teams with a risk of relegation remains quite unpredictable, the above table should help you make your relegation predictions quite accurately.

We hope this Premier League betting guide will help you become more efficient with your Premier League outrights in the future. Like always, make sure to gamble responsibly and good luck!

How to bet on English Premier League betting guide